Alpha Dog – daily notes on investing and trading for self-directed investors and traders looking to execute trading ideas and manage risk.
Welcome to Alpha Dawg! My almost daily note about investing and trading. In my daily note you’ll find easy to digest information about the drivers of current market events. I aim for 500 words or a 2 minute read. Quick, to the point and packed full of charts and trading ideas.
I will post my trading positions as they unfold. Hopefully everyone will learn from the process of idea creation, to execution, and risk management tactics. I hope this process will help me improve my results. Investing and trading is a constant process of trying to improve oneself.
The market is not in a good mood these days. Make no mistake about it, there is blood in the streets right now. Rattled investor’s are selling their stocks at fire sale prices, in my opinion. Could stock prices drop further? Sure, of course they could! But I get the feeling we’ve gone too far too fast to the downside.
The safest course of action is to make a shopping list, have cash ready to deploy, and wait for a change in narrative, or market tone. Only then pounce on a good trading idea.
My turnaround shopping list of trading ideas:
- The Trade Desk – TTD (earning today after the bell)
- Affirm Holdings – AFRM (earnings also today after the bell)
- Ensign Energy Services – ESI (surprise earnings beat May 9th)
I made a conscious effort to limit the number of technology stocks. Even though this is my favorite sector to trade. Staying diversified in your ideas is just as important as your portfolio.
Global Macro
I like the global macro trading style. The idea of piecing together unrelated data in order to reach a possible outcome is fascinating to me. Indeed, combining statistics and market phycology to investing and trading is a challenging pursuit rife with risk. There’s no guarantee of success. That said, adopting a sound risk management framework goes hand-in-hand with trading or investing.
The current market narrative is sell bonds and risk assets (stocks/crypto) and buy the USD. No exceptions. Both asset classes are trading lock step since November 2021. One quick look at the DYX (US dollar index) tells the story. Lot’s of cash is parked in the USD.
All it takes is a spark and a violent short covering rally will surely ensue. Maybe tomorrow. Maybe next week. Regardless, I’m ready to pounce!
Conclusion
Sometimes logic takes a back seat to emotion. It appears this could be one of those situations. To be sure, waaaay tooo much cash hiding in USD side-by-side with roaring inflation. In my opinion, this market has moved too far to one side of the boat. It’s only a matter of time before the narrative flips.
No trades to post today, but tomorrow after The Trade Desk and Affirm Holdings report their quarterlies, things could get interesting.
Be flexible. Trade your own ideas. Love everyone. Call you mom.
I also really like Roblox as a long-term investment. I wrote a piece on Roblox here.
Alpha Dawg – daily notes on investing and trading for self-directed investors and traders looking to execute trading ideas and manage risk.
Disclaimer: The content on this webpage is intended for informational and educational purposes only. No content on this webpage is intended as financial advice. The publisher of this website does not take any responsibility for possible financial consequences of any persons using the information in this educational content. Trade and invest at your own risk. Trade your own view.
