An investment newsletter like no other. Concise market views and trade ideas all packaged in a quick and easy to read format. Alpha (noun) Abnormal investing returns, the edge of a strategy in excess of market returns
Welcome to Alpha Dawg!
Bank stress levels out the playing field
Today I thought I’d provide an update on the performance of the Alpha/Active portfolio compared to the passive portfolio. To recap, I run two portfolios simultaneously. One is an Alpha portfolio where I try to beat a benchmark passive 60/40 portfolio. For those of you who are new to investing, an Alpha or active investment […]
Bye bye money printing
Money printing or more accurately called credit creation is the driving force behind economic growth and bull markets. How do we correctly measure money creation? There are two ways real economy money is created: Contrary to popular opinion, when central banks pursue quantitative easing (QE) they don’t create real economy money, instead bank reserves are […]
Economic and portfolio update – Mar 6th
finding balance can be tough (385 words – 3 min read) Big news this week as two new positions are added to the Alpha portfolio. Key economic stats It all comes back to jobs, if you got one all is good. On the other hand J. Powell is looking for rising unemployment to declare victory […]
Economic and Portfolio Update – Feb 27th
(690 words – 6 minute read) This is my weekly update on the state of the economy and the ETF portfolio asset allocation models. Key economic stats Statistically speaking, there’s no clear signal here as the data is either good or bad. For example, surging mortgage rates lead to a monster +8.1% rise in existing […]
On a knifes edge
(456 words – 4 minute read) Stocks look droopy as the new year short squeeze fizzles and season flows into retirement plans dry up. Now yields are on the move higher with the US 10yr sitting at the key 3.9% level. Yields are not scary yet, but if bond volatility continues higher along with yields […]
Economic and Portfolio Update – Feb 22nd
(514 words ~ 5 minute read) This is my weekly update on the state of the economy and the ETF portfolio asset allocation models. Philip Tetlock wrote in his book Super Forecasting the following, “We have all been too quick to make up our minds and too slow to change them.” If you haven’t read […]
Economic and Portfolio Update – Feb 14th
(418 words – ~ 4 minute read) This is my weekly update on the state of the markets and any changes to the asset allocation models. 2023 Economic Outcome Probabilities No change in probabilities from last week. You can find last week’s update here if interested. The major change this year was the increased likelihood […]
Definitely maybe
(384 words, ~ 4 minute read) Even though Supersonic was Oasis’s debut single, their song Definitely Maybe sums up today’s markets perfectly. We’re definitely maybe in for a recession or soft landing. Since it’s Friday I’m going to quickly review several key economic growth indicators and see if any consensus emerges. Growth indicators I wrote […]
Dr. Copper what’s up?
(445 words, ~4 min read) Short one today as everything has quieted down since Powell spoke on Tuesday. It’s never a bad idea to see how copper is trading. The metal is used to make just about everything. So, its behavior can help us assess risk in the market. Dr. Copper sees a higher probability […]
Looking at nominal yields
(367 words, ~4min read) Looking at nominal yields today, remember interest rates are the lubricant of the financial system. We’ve become accustomed to low rates over the past decade and today an inflexion point approaches and we might get a better signal on the economy’s direction. Big Triangle Formation This chart of the US 10yr […]
