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Bank stress levels out the playing field

feeling stressed
This is how I feel right now

Today I thought I’d provide an update on the performance of the Alpha/Active portfolio compared to the passive portfolio.

To recap, I run two portfolios simultaneously. One is an Alpha portfolio where I try to beat a benchmark passive 60/40 portfolio.

For those of you who are new to investing, an Alpha or active investment strategy tries to outperform a passive benchmark portfolio of similar characteristics.

In this case, the passive benchmark portfolio is the classic 60/40 portfolio where 60% is allocated to equities and the remaining 40% to fixed income.

On the other hand, the Alpha or active portfolio attempts to adjust the asset allocation based on macro economic data and prevailing market narratives, with the goal of outperforming the passive portfolio.

The majority of portfolios owned by retail investors follow the Alpha or active investment strategy.

A major challenge facing Alpha/active management strategies are high fees incurred to research, design, and operate the portfolio. There is a long running debate about which strategy is better: Alpha/active or passive. Here is a great article by Morgan Stanley that explores this debate further.

Active versus Passive Strategies – as of March 20, 2023

Asset Allocation – Alpha/Active

Active asset allocation - March 20, 2023
defensive asset allocation

Portfolio Holdings – Alpha/Active

Active portfolio holdings - March 20, 2023

Transactions – Alpha/Active

Active portfolio transactions - March 20, 2023
2023 trading commissions = $42

Asset Allocation – 60/40 Passive

Passive portfolio asset allocation - March 20, 2023
60% equities / 40% fixed income

Portfolio Holdings – 60/40 Passive

Passive portfolio holdings - March 20, 2023

Transactions – 60/40 Passive

Passive portfolio transactions - March 20, 2023
2023 trading commissions = $18

Alpha/Active versus Passive Scorecard

Active vs Passive Strategy Comparison - March 20, 2023

Final Thoughts

Over the past year risk assets faced an uphill battle due to high inflation, rising interest rates, and now a banking crisis in the US and Europe. Market participants discounted risk assets last year in response to higher short-term borrowing costs, but have future corporate earnings been discounted for a recession? That’s the big question.

In my opinion, based on my Quadrant Asset Allocation Model we remain stuck in Quadrant 4. Quadrant 4 is a macro investing environment where growth and monetary policy act like headwinds indicating prevailing risk levels are high. In this environment it’s best to remain defensive until economic conditions change.

Quadrant Asset Allocation Model - client version
We are in Quadrant 4

Thanks for reading!

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