(482 words – 4 minute read) Will Chair J. Powell step up to the microphone and tell speculators that risky assets have no business trading at these elevated levels? I dunno, but it’s all that matters today. Powell speaks at noon today, so be prepared for heighted volatility. I wonder if Powell changes his dovish […]
Author: Mike Hogan
Financial planning and investing does not have to be a chaotic, complex, and volatile process only for smartest minds and most expensive computers in the world. In fact, quite the opposite, a logical financial plan is within the reach of everyone. All you have to do is take the first step.
Economic outcomes
(491 words – 4 minute read) With so many economic outcomes this year it makes managing investments particularly challenging. Usually, the decision tree consists of only a couple of branches, but his year we have 5 basic outcomes to consider. The direction is uncertain: up, down, or sideways. Who knows? I think taking a probabilistic […]
Statistical error
(580 words, ~4 minute read) Statistical error? The NFP (non-farm payroll data) data release blew away economist estimates making the entire series a joke today. Seriously, economists consensus expectations was for +188k jobs created in January, but the data came in at +517k. On Wednesday the FOMC talked about the effect of recent rate hikes […]
Paid to wait
(600 words, ~4 minute read) It was tough to squeeze all the important moments, but I think it turned out okay. Paid to wait. That’s the approach to start this year. A defensive approach due to tight monetary conditions and questionable future growth. It’s been a long time since investors could hide out in cash […]
Trifecta Week
(544 words, ~3 minute read) The first week of February is shaping up to be a beauty with the Fed, ECB, and NFP on tap. Not very often do we get a week this jam packed and it reminds me the first week of the NHL payoffs. Action all round. Below is a summary of […]
Bullish vibes to start 2023
What a change the month of January has made as risk assets get bid up to start the year. But, is the rally sustainable? Let’s take a quick look at leading economic indicators and where monetary policy stands. To be sure, markets are looking at two narratives when it comes to risky assets. First is […]
Inflation debt and printing money
Inflation debt and printing money all have one thread connecting them together which is interest rates. Interest rates are the lubricant of the monetary system. In normal times Central Banks raise or lower rates in an attempt to keep business running smoothly. Since 2008 Central Banks have added a new tool to mange the economy […]
Good ideas, bad timing and capitulation
Good ideas bad timing and capitulation are all factors that influence investor decision making sometimes for better or worse. Sometimes I have great trade ideas that work immediately and are incredibly profitable. Sometimes my ideas are dead upon execution. This is life as an investor and trader. Sometimes your ideas work and other times they […]
How to play the Fed into year end
How to play the Fed into year end? An interesting question that’s on everyone’s mind after yesterday’s FOMC meeting. The FOMC hiked the terminal rate by 75bps. Not a surprise, the hike was baked into the market, but Powell’s comments afterwards during the press conference were not. Thereby illuminating year end investment decisions. Here’s how […]
Fed rate decision on tap tomorrow
Fed rate decision on tap tomorrow as traders and investors brace for heightened volatility as talk of a PIVOT fade. Also, there is a ton of data to come out before the next Fed meeting on Dec 14th. So, who knows which way the wind will blow. Hot or Cold The current market narrative is […]
