finding balance can be tough (385 words – 3 min read) Big news this week as two new positions are added to the Alpha portfolio. Key economic stats It all comes back to jobs, if you got one all is good. On the other hand J. Powell is looking for rising unemployment to declare victory […]
Category: Interest Rates
Definitely maybe
(384 words, ~ 4 minute read) Even though Supersonic was Oasis’s debut single, their song Definitely Maybe sums up today’s markets perfectly. We’re definitely maybe in for a recession or soft landing. Since it’s Friday I’m going to quickly review several key economic growth indicators and see if any consensus emerges. Growth indicators I wrote […]
Looking at nominal yields
(367 words, ~4min read) Looking at nominal yields today, remember interest rates are the lubricant of the financial system. We’ve become accustomed to low rates over the past decade and today an inflexion point approaches and we might get a better signal on the economy’s direction. Big Triangle Formation This chart of the US 10yr […]
Chair Powell step up to the microphone
(482 words – 4 minute read) Will Chair J. Powell step up to the microphone and tell speculators that risky assets have no business trading at these elevated levels? I dunno, but it’s all that matters today. Powell speaks at noon today, so be prepared for heighted volatility. I wonder if Powell changes his dovish […]
Economic outcomes
(491 words – 4 minute read) With so many economic outcomes this year it makes managing investments particularly challenging. Usually, the decision tree consists of only a couple of branches, but his year we have 5 basic outcomes to consider. The direction is uncertain: up, down, or sideways. Who knows? I think taking a probabilistic […]
Statistical error
(580 words, ~4 minute read) Statistical error? The NFP (non-farm payroll data) data release blew away economist estimates making the entire series a joke today. Seriously, economists consensus expectations was for +188k jobs created in January, but the data came in at +517k. On Wednesday the FOMC talked about the effect of recent rate hikes […]
Paid to wait
(600 words, ~4 minute read) It was tough to squeeze all the important moments, but I think it turned out okay. Paid to wait. That’s the approach to start this year. A defensive approach due to tight monetary conditions and questionable future growth. It’s been a long time since investors could hide out in cash […]
Trifecta Week
(544 words, ~3 minute read) The first week of February is shaping up to be a beauty with the Fed, ECB, and NFP on tap. Not very often do we get a week this jam packed and it reminds me the first week of the NHL payoffs. Action all round. Below is a summary of […]
Bullish vibes to start 2023
What a change the month of January has made as risk assets get bid up to start the year. But, is the rally sustainable? Let’s take a quick look at leading economic indicators and where monetary policy stands. To be sure, markets are looking at two narratives when it comes to risky assets. First is […]
Fed rate decision on tap tomorrow
Fed rate decision on tap tomorrow as traders and investors brace for heightened volatility as talk of a PIVOT fade. Also, there is a ton of data to come out before the next Fed meeting on Dec 14th. So, who knows which way the wind will blow. Hot or Cold The current market narrative is […]
