(456 words – 4 minute read) Stocks look droopy as the new year short squeeze fizzles and season flows into retirement plans dry up. Now yields are on the move higher with the US 10yr sitting at the key 3.9% level. Yields are not scary yet, but if bond volatility continues higher along with yields […]
Category: Bonds
Definitely maybe
(384 words, ~ 4 minute read) Even though Supersonic was Oasis’s debut single, their song Definitely Maybe sums up today’s markets perfectly. We’re definitely maybe in for a recession or soft landing. Since it’s Friday I’m going to quickly review several key economic growth indicators and see if any consensus emerges. Growth indicators I wrote […]
Looking at nominal yields
(367 words, ~4min read) Looking at nominal yields today, remember interest rates are the lubricant of the financial system. We’ve become accustomed to low rates over the past decade and today an inflexion point approaches and we might get a better signal on the economy’s direction. Big Triangle Formation This chart of the US 10yr […]
Chair Powell step up to the microphone
(482 words – 4 minute read) Will Chair J. Powell step up to the microphone and tell speculators that risky assets have no business trading at these elevated levels? I dunno, but it’s all that matters today. Powell speaks at noon today, so be prepared for heighted volatility. I wonder if Powell changes his dovish […]
How to play the Fed into year end
How to play the Fed into year end? An interesting question that’s on everyone’s mind after yesterday’s FOMC meeting. The FOMC hiked the terminal rate by 75bps. Not a surprise, the hike was baked into the market, but Powell’s comments afterwards during the press conference were not. Thereby illuminating year end investment decisions. Here’s how […]
Bear market bounce
Bear market bounces are fun to watch, but hard to trade. Market Narrative The dominate market thesis lately was higher rates is bad news for equities, so why take any risk. Nobody did and down go stocks. However, the tone changed on September 28th as US 10yr yields peaked a hair under 4%. Since then, […]
Can stocks bounce here?
Can stocks bounce here after sellers pounded the S&P 500 index for 5 weeks in a row? This is the question I’m asking myself right now. It’s never a good idea to get entrenched into a linear way of thinking. Investing requires a flexible mindset and it’s extraordinarily hard to do so. Current Views Global […]
Another Fed rate hike
Another Fed rate hike is in the books. You can read the full FOMC statement here. Buy the dip It’s widely known that (stocks) the S&P 500 index is in a bear market. Unfortunately, the “buy the dip” crowd didn’t get the memo as the VIX stubbornly stays below 30, screaming where not at the […]
Federal Budget 2022: more spending
Federal Budget 2022 in Canada left investors less than thrilled. The minority Liberal Party of Canada released their 2022 budget last week. To recap, government spending is set to top $31 billion over the next 5 years. This whopping bill represents about 1%-2% of GDP. I can’t help but wonder which country is next to […]
It’s back. Ultimate Investor Update – Ep. 11
Yep, that’s right! It’s back, the Ultimate Investor Update #11. The point of this article is to quickly review global finance and determine if it’s safe to own risk assets. I do that by covering 3-5 markets each update. Sometimes I dive deep into a particular market because a huge narrative has surfaced unexpectedly. Often […]
