(456 words – 4 minute read) Stocks look droopy as the new year short squeeze fizzles and season flows into retirement plans dry up. Now yields are on the move higher with the US 10yr sitting at the key 3.9% level. Yields are not scary yet, but if bond volatility continues higher along with yields […]
Category: Commodities
Definitely maybe
(384 words, ~ 4 minute read) Even though Supersonic was Oasis’s debut single, their song Definitely Maybe sums up today’s markets perfectly. We’re definitely maybe in for a recession or soft landing. Since it’s Friday I’m going to quickly review several key economic growth indicators and see if any consensus emerges. Growth indicators I wrote […]
Dr. Copper what’s up?
(445 words, ~4 min read) Short one today as everything has quieted down since Powell spoke on Tuesday. It’s never a bad idea to see how copper is trading. The metal is used to make just about everything. So, its behavior can help us assess risk in the market. Dr. Copper sees a higher probability […]
Chair Powell step up to the microphone
(482 words – 4 minute read) Will Chair J. Powell step up to the microphone and tell speculators that risky assets have no business trading at these elevated levels? I dunno, but it’s all that matters today. Powell speaks at noon today, so be prepared for heighted volatility. I wonder if Powell changes his dovish […]
Economic outcomes
(491 words – 4 minute read) With so many economic outcomes this year it makes managing investments particularly challenging. Usually, the decision tree consists of only a couple of branches, but his year we have 5 basic outcomes to consider. The direction is uncertain: up, down, or sideways. Who knows? I think taking a probabilistic […]
Russian invades Ukraine, what should you do?
Russian invades Ukraine, what should you do? Well, for starters, don’t panic. No one ever made a dime making investment decisions charged with emotional nonsense. The chart below shows Russian stocks tanking 50% today. To be clear, Russian stocks have bounced massively off the lows this morning, but investors still lost 3 years of gains […]
Inflation is a mixed bag
Inflation is a mixed bag of statistical noise. Today I want to highlight an interesting divergence between two key energy markets. The chart below shows to collapse in oil prices today after the FED announced it was starting to taper QE by 20 billion per month. To be sure, prices are pretty lofty at these […]
Stocks Are Set To SOAR Because of Inflation
Stocks are set to soar because of inflation. It’s hard to not to notice the jump in consumer prices. Everything from groceries to gasoline costs more. But where’s the proof? We need data. Okay, not a problem. Let’s look at two factors: wages and debt. Wages Check out the Economic Policy Institute wage tracker. Here […]
Gold Bugs Continue to Suffer
The large majority of gold investors are gold bugs and suffer from the tragic flaw of tunnel vision. What is a gold bug? Simply put, a gold bug is an investor who dislikes paper money or fiat currency. Similarly, a gold bug wants the economy to return to the gold standard. Not surprisingly, a gold […]
Ultimate Investor Update – Ep. 4
The Ultimate Market update is your official source for a stock market update. So, a lot is happening in the markets right now. Most notably is the Gamestop short squeeze. If you are trading Gamestop you might want to checkout my post about the situation and how to trade it. To summarize, the easy money […]
