Today I thought I’d provide an update on the performance of the Alpha/Active portfolio compared to the passive portfolio. To recap, I run two portfolios simultaneously. One is an Alpha portfolio where I try to beat a benchmark passive 60/40 portfolio. For those of you who are new to investing, an Alpha or active investment […]
Category: Economic indicators
An economic indicator is a piece of economic data, usually of macroeconomic scale, that is used by analysts to interpret current or future investment possibilities. These indicators also help to judge the overall health of an economy. Economic indicators can be anything the investor chooses, but specific pieces of data released by the government and non-profit organizations have become widely followed.
Bye bye money printing
Money printing or more accurately called credit creation is the driving force behind economic growth and bull markets. How do we correctly measure money creation? There are two ways real economy money is created: Contrary to popular opinion, when central banks pursue quantitative easing (QE) they don’t create real economy money, instead bank reserves are […]
Economic and portfolio update – Mar 6th
finding balance can be tough (385 words – 3 min read) Big news this week as two new positions are added to the Alpha portfolio. Key economic stats It all comes back to jobs, if you got one all is good. On the other hand J. Powell is looking for rising unemployment to declare victory […]
Economic and Portfolio Update – Feb 27th
(690 words – 6 minute read) This is my weekly update on the state of the economy and the ETF portfolio asset allocation models. Key economic stats Statistically speaking, there’s no clear signal here as the data is either good or bad. For example, surging mortgage rates lead to a monster +8.1% rise in existing […]
Economic and Portfolio Update – Feb 22nd
(514 words ~ 5 minute read) This is my weekly update on the state of the economy and the ETF portfolio asset allocation models. Philip Tetlock wrote in his book Super Forecasting the following, “We have all been too quick to make up our minds and too slow to change them.” If you haven’t read […]
Economic and Portfolio Update – Feb 14th
(418 words – ~ 4 minute read) This is my weekly update on the state of the markets and any changes to the asset allocation models. 2023 Economic Outcome Probabilities No change in probabilities from last week. You can find last week’s update here if interested. The major change this year was the increased likelihood […]
Bullish vibes to start 2023
What a change the month of January has made as risk assets get bid up to start the year. But, is the rally sustainable? Let’s take a quick look at leading economic indicators and where monetary policy stands. To be sure, markets are looking at two narratives when it comes to risky assets. First is […]
Is inflation sticky?
Is inflation sticky? No doubt, the ability to accurately forecast inflation is in question. After all, economists 2021 – 2022 inflation forecasts completely missed the mark. Are their models wrong? I think so. In light of this failure, it makes sense to follow the data and make your own forecast. There are different measures like […]
Jackson Hole signaled higher rates ahead
Jackson Hole signaled higher rates ahead and investors dump stocks and question what to do next. Jay Powel was crystal clear, higher rates are coming and stocks will not be bailout out this time around. Wise market participants realize the Fed Put is dead. Another way of saying, we won’t cut rates if economic growth […]
Bullish narrative shift
Is it time to turn up the risk needle? Welcome to Alpha Dawg! My almost daily note about global self-directed investing and trading. You get all my investing ideas, analysis, and risk management techniques. I hope you enjoy the content. I aim for about 500 words or a 2 minute read. Alpha – noun abnormal […]
