Can stocks bounce here after sellers pounded the S&P 500 index for 5 weeks in a row? This is the question I’m asking myself right now. It’s never a good idea to get entrenched into a linear way of thinking. Investing requires a flexible mindset and it’s extraordinarily hard to do so. Current Views Global […]
Category: Interest Rates
Another Fed rate hike
Another Fed rate hike is in the books. You can read the full FOMC statement here. Buy the dip It’s widely known that (stocks) the S&P 500 index is in a bear market. Unfortunately, the “buy the dip” crowd didn’t get the memo as the VIX stubbornly stays below 30, screaming where not at the […]
Fed interest rate decision looms
Fed interest rate decision looms tomorrow as risk assets face an uphill climb as the pace of higher interest rate hikes gathers momentum. Current Views Risk assets like stocks are in a legit bear market. The last time investors had to deal with a bear market was the Dot.Com bubble way back in 2001. Over […]
Is inflation sticky?
Is inflation sticky? No doubt, the ability to accurately forecast inflation is in question. After all, economists 2021 – 2022 inflation forecasts completely missed the mark. Are their models wrong? I think so. In light of this failure, it makes sense to follow the data and make your own forecast. There are different measures like […]
Leading indicators say short stocks
Leading indicators say short stocks into the Fed Sept 21st meeting as inflation expectations fail to cooperate with falling energy prices. Investor hopes of rapidly declining inflation is turning out to be a pipe dream of epic proportions. Inflation expectations Today’s CPI data release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in hot at 8.25%, […]
Bullish narrative shift
Is it time to turn up the risk needle? Welcome to Alpha Dawg! My almost daily note about global self-directed investing and trading. You get all my investing ideas, analysis, and risk management techniques. I hope you enjoy the content. I aim for about 500 words or a 2 minute read. Alpha – noun abnormal […]
Federal Budget 2022: more spending
Federal Budget 2022 in Canada left investors less than thrilled. The minority Liberal Party of Canada released their 2022 budget last week. To recap, government spending is set to top $31 billion over the next 5 years. This whopping bill represents about 1%-2% of GDP. I can’t help but wonder which country is next to […]
Markets a look ahead
Markets a look ahead this week appears to be much of the same. heightened volatility continued talk about ‘high’ inflation and how to fight it the FED looking a +50pbs rate hikes, maybe China’s PBOC propping up risky assets, wut? Last week we witnessed an epic collapse in Chinese stocks, maybe you noticed as well. […]
Russian invades Ukraine, what should you do?
Russian invades Ukraine, what should you do? Well, for starters, don’t panic. No one ever made a dime making investment decisions charged with emotional nonsense. The chart below shows Russian stocks tanking 50% today. To be clear, Russian stocks have bounced massively off the lows this morning, but investors still lost 3 years of gains […]
Market Update: up or down is anyone’s guess
It’s been a while since I posted a market update. So, without delay here is your global macro setup as we approach mid-February. To summarize, we have a bit of a tricky setup at the moment. First off, global Central Banks are trying to pivot to a tightening monetary policy without upsetting the apple cart. […]
