Leading indicators say short stocks into the Fed Sept 21st meeting as inflation expectations fail to cooperate with falling energy prices. Investor hopes of rapidly declining inflation is turning out to be a pipe dream of epic proportions. Inflation expectations Today’s CPI data release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in hot at 8.25%, […]
Category: Personal Finance
Calm before the storm
Calm before the storm as seasonal weakness and US mid-term elections put a lid on risk asset upside. This is a way of saying risk to the downside is meaningful right now, but opportunities are plenty. Alpha – noun abnormal investing returns, the edge of a strategy in excess of market returns Economic calendar The economic […]
Jackson Hole signaled higher rates ahead
Jackson Hole signaled higher rates ahead and investors dump stocks and question what to do next. Jay Powel was crystal clear, higher rates are coming and stocks will not be bailout out this time around. Wise market participants realize the Fed Put is dead. Another way of saying, we won’t cut rates if economic growth […]
China’s economic engine sputters
China’s economic engine sputters as the “recession imminent” theme tries to dethrone the dominant “goldilocks” narrative. What does this mean for my overall market thesis? That stock prices rise into Jackson Hole on August 27th, and then begin to slide into Halloween. Not much, the market is fixated on inflation and CPI. To recap, yesterday […]
Bullish narrative shift
Is it time to turn up the risk needle? Welcome to Alpha Dawg! My almost daily note about global self-directed investing and trading. You get all my investing ideas, analysis, and risk management techniques. I hope you enjoy the content. I aim for about 500 words or a 2 minute read. Alpha – noun abnormal […]
Welcome to Alpha Dawg!
An investment newsletter like no other. Concise market views and trade ideas all packaged in a quick and easy to read format. Alpha (noun) Abnormal investing returns, the edge of a strategy in excess of market returns
Fed hiked rates by 75pbs and a red hot PPI read
Fed hikes rates by 75pbs and a red hot PPI read signals there is more paid to come short-term. Welcome to Alpha Dawg! My almost daily note about global self-directed investing and trading. You get all my trading ideas, analysis, and novel ways to manage risk in these volatile markets. I hope you enjoy the […]
Core CPI snuffs peak inflation hopes
Core CPI snuffs peak inflation hopes, including mine. Last month I wrote about the possibility inflation had peaked, you can read that post here. Unfortunately, today’s monthly CPI data release by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics sets a new inflation record. The inflation outlook is less than good. Stocks tank. Welcome to Alpha Dawg! […]
U.S. initial jobless claims not a good sign
U.S. initial jobless claims measure the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Since March of this year weekly unemployment claims have ticked higher. To be sure, this is not a sign of economic strength, but it’s not a death sentence either. More likely, it’s something […]
Alpha Dawg – trade – ESI
Short-term I see a volatile market ahead for the remainder of the year. Risk is high. Times like these make or break traders. So, my advice is to dial back your risk. A little risk goes a long way. Welcome to Alpha Dawg! My almost daily note about global self-directed investing and trading. You get […]
