How to play the Fed into year end? An interesting question that’s on everyone’s mind after yesterday’s FOMC meeting. The FOMC hiked the terminal rate by 75bps. Not a surprise, the hike was baked into the market, but Powell’s comments afterwards during the press conference were not. Thereby illuminating year end investment decisions. Here’s how […]
Category: Trades
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Bear market bounce
Bear market bounces are fun to watch, but hard to trade. Market Narrative The dominate market thesis lately was higher rates is bad news for equities, so why take any risk. Nobody did and down go stocks. However, the tone changed on September 28th as US 10yr yields peaked a hair under 4%. Since then, […]
Can stocks bounce here?
Can stocks bounce here after sellers pounded the S&P 500 index for 5 weeks in a row? This is the question I’m asking myself right now. It’s never a good idea to get entrenched into a linear way of thinking. Investing requires a flexible mindset and it’s extraordinarily hard to do so. Current Views Global […]
Another Fed rate hike
Another Fed rate hike is in the books. You can read the full FOMC statement here. Buy the dip It’s widely known that (stocks) the S&P 500 index is in a bear market. Unfortunately, the “buy the dip” crowd didn’t get the memo as the VIX stubbornly stays below 30, screaming where not at the […]
Fed interest rate decision looms
Fed interest rate decision looms tomorrow as risk assets face an uphill climb as the pace of higher interest rate hikes gathers momentum. Current Views Risk assets like stocks are in a legit bear market. The last time investors had to deal with a bear market was the Dot.Com bubble way back in 2001. Over […]
Is inflation sticky?
Is inflation sticky? No doubt, the ability to accurately forecast inflation is in question. After all, economists 2021 – 2022 inflation forecasts completely missed the mark. Are their models wrong? I think so. In light of this failure, it makes sense to follow the data and make your own forecast. There are different measures like […]
Leading indicators say short stocks
Leading indicators say short stocks into the Fed Sept 21st meeting as inflation expectations fail to cooperate with falling energy prices. Investor hopes of rapidly declining inflation is turning out to be a pipe dream of epic proportions. Inflation expectations Today’s CPI data release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in hot at 8.25%, […]
Calm before the storm
Calm before the storm as seasonal weakness and US mid-term elections put a lid on risk asset upside. This is a way of saying risk to the downside is meaningful right now, but opportunities are plenty. Alpha – noun abnormal investing returns, the edge of a strategy in excess of market returns Economic calendar The economic […]
Jackson Hole signaled higher rates ahead
Jackson Hole signaled higher rates ahead and investors dump stocks and question what to do next. Jay Powel was crystal clear, higher rates are coming and stocks will not be bailout out this time around. Wise market participants realize the Fed Put is dead. Another way of saying, we won’t cut rates if economic growth […]
China’s economic engine sputters
China’s economic engine sputters as the “recession imminent” theme tries to dethrone the dominant “goldilocks” narrative. What does this mean for my overall market thesis? That stock prices rise into Jackson Hole on August 27th, and then begin to slide into Halloween. Not much, the market is fixated on inflation and CPI. To recap, yesterday […]
