(418 words – ~ 4 minute read) This is my weekly update on the state of the markets and any changes to the asset allocation models. 2023 Economic Outcome Probabilities No change in probabilities from last week. You can find last week’s update here if interested. The major change this year was the increased likelihood […]
Tag: federal reserve
Chair Powell step up to the microphone
(482 words – 4 minute read) Will Chair J. Powell step up to the microphone and tell speculators that risky assets have no business trading at these elevated levels? I dunno, but it’s all that matters today. Powell speaks at noon today, so be prepared for heighted volatility. I wonder if Powell changes his dovish […]
Economic outcomes
(491 words – 4 minute read) With so many economic outcomes this year it makes managing investments particularly challenging. Usually, the decision tree consists of only a couple of branches, but his year we have 5 basic outcomes to consider. The direction is uncertain: up, down, or sideways. Who knows? I think taking a probabilistic […]
Statistical error
(580 words, ~4 minute read) Statistical error? The NFP (non-farm payroll data) data release blew away economist estimates making the entire series a joke today. Seriously, economists consensus expectations was for +188k jobs created in January, but the data came in at +517k. On Wednesday the FOMC talked about the effect of recent rate hikes […]
Paid to wait
(600 words, ~4 minute read) It was tough to squeeze all the important moments, but I think it turned out okay. Paid to wait. That’s the approach to start this year. A defensive approach due to tight monetary conditions and questionable future growth. It’s been a long time since investors could hide out in cash […]
Trifecta Week
(544 words, ~3 minute read) The first week of February is shaping up to be a beauty with the Fed, ECB, and NFP on tap. Not very often do we get a week this jam packed and it reminds me the first week of the NHL payoffs. Action all round. Below is a summary of […]
Bullish vibes to start 2023
What a change the month of January has made as risk assets get bid up to start the year. But, is the rally sustainable? Let’s take a quick look at leading economic indicators and where monetary policy stands. To be sure, markets are looking at two narratives when it comes to risky assets. First is […]
Fed hiked rates by 75pbs and a red hot PPI read
Fed hikes rates by 75pbs and a red hot PPI read signals there is more paid to come short-term. Welcome to Alpha Dawg! My almost daily note about global self-directed investing and trading. You get all my trading ideas, analysis, and novel ways to manage risk in these volatile markets. I hope you enjoy the […]
Markets a look ahead
Markets a look ahead this week appears to be much of the same. heightened volatility continued talk about ‘high’ inflation and how to fight it the FED looking a +50pbs rate hikes, maybe China’s PBOC propping up risky assets, wut? Last week we witnessed an epic collapse in Chinese stocks, maybe you noticed as well. […]
Technology stocks are under pressure, again
Technology stocks are under pressure again as investors face the end of the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing measures. The chart below of the ETF “QQQ” illustrates the dangerous position technology stocks are facing. Do prices collapse from here, or do we get a solid bottom and begin a new rally? To be sure, that’s anyone’s […]
